000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SAT APR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N94W TO 05N107W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N107W TO 05N125W TO 06N137W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E
OF 80W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED
OVER LAND DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND HAS SINCE PROPAGATED
SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 26N JUST TO THE W OF 120W. THIS FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THEN INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
TROUGHING AND THE BUILDING RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 29N E OF
117W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA WHILE THEY
WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE STATE OF
CALIFORNIA. THE PERSISTENT WINDS NW OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE GENERATION OF FRESH NW SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE S-
SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N
WITH WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAJA PASSES. A
BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE
WARNING BECOMES REQUIRED.

STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 10 FT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...MODERATE DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS WELL IS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS.
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

NW SWELLS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM
32N123W TO 18N140W ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL.
THE RESULT IS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE MAINLY NW SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH FRESH NE
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10
FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. TRADES
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE
TO 6-8 FT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
     
$$
LEWITSKY