000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT APR 23 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N110W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO
BEYOND 04N140W.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N84W TO
06N104W...WITHIN 75 NM OF 11N112W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N116W TO 07N127W TO 03N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS FROM NEAR 20N120W TO BEYOND 15N108W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER N OF THE RIDGE FROM 24N113W TO OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BE
TIGHTENING AND EXPECT FRESH NW WINDS TO SOON DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 28-32N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OUT TO ALONG 123W
ON SAT EVENING...WITH STRONG NW WINDS...AND SEAS 9-14 FT...
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29-32N BETWEEN 117-124W ON SUN AND MON.
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY...BUT BRIEFLY...RELAX ON TUE
INTO WED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT LATE WED. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SEND
NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 20-29N BETWEEN 112-120W ON MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ON TUE AND WED. BY THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
STRONG SOUTHERLY PULSES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ALONG 30N BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. 

STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER VERY
BRIEF SURGE AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT.  
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

MODERATE ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT.
MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
OF PANAMA TONIGHT. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

NW SWELLS HAVE SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM
32N127W TO 23N140W AND ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE
SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE NW SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT. AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 15N E OF 120W...STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-14 FT ARE
EXPECTED N OF 30N E OF 124W ON SAT AND SUN AND MON...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ON TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE E ACROSS THE NE PORTION BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS.
 
THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH FRESH NE
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 7-9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA ON SAT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND
THE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. 
     
$$
NELSON