000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                  
1005 UTC FRI APR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 07N100W TO 10N116W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N119W TO 08N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN
123W AND 126W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 20N120W TO BEYOND
15N103W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH IS OBSERVED N OF THE
RIDGE FROM 22N118W TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TIGHTENING WITH FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS NOW PRESENT N OF 28N WITHIN 120-180 NM W OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO STRONG BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. SEAS IN FRESH NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 10-14
FT FROM 28N-32N THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH A LEADING EDGE OF THE
NW SWELL AT 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX TUE INTO WED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-11
FT BY WED.

MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29.5N
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BRIEFLY BY LATE SUN NIGHT...
DIMINISHING BY LATE MON NIGHT. A BRIEF BURST OF FRESH TO STRONG
NW-NW FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSE OF ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

NW SWELLS HAVE SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM
30N133W TO 27N140W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS TO THE N OF 28N. MODERATE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE
NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E AND BEGIN TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT
EXPECTED W OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 17N140W LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND W OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 16N130W LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH NE
TRADES ALREADY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
120W. COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 07N-12N W
OF 134W...AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE AREA FROM 07N-17N W OF
122W BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN TO FROM 06N-16N W OF
123W BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS THEY BUILD TO UP TO 10
FT.
     
$$
LEWITSKY