000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220251 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI APR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N82W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES WNW TO 09N115W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N83W TO 06N89W AND FROM 07N106W TO 08N122W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 03-09N BETWEEN 89-106W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N122W TO 02N140W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 18N120W TO BEYOND 15N105W THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON SAT. A WEAK TROUGH IS OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE FROM 27N117W TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON FRI...AND SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 28-32N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINNING FRI EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OUT TO ALONG 122W LATE SAT...WITH STRONG NW WINDS...AND SEAS 9-14 FT...ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29-32N BETWEEN 118-125W ON SUN AND MON...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING ON TUE INTO WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 8-11 FT BY WED. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SEND NW SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SEAS OF 8- 11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 20-29N BETWEEN 112-120W ON MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 30N LATE FRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. S OF 15N E OF 110W... A FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSE OF ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... NW SWELLS HAVE SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 26N140W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO THE N OF 30N...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT SW-W- NW WIND SHIFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT EARLY FRI. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E AND BEGIN TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT EXPECTED W OF A LINE FROM 32N127W 27N140W ON FRI...AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 17N140W ON SAT. THE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH NE TRADES ALREADY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W BY SAT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ON MON. SEE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF 120W FOR DISCUSSION ON STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF 29N BETWEEN 120-125W BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT. $$ NELSON