000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1330 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 
                          
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N90W TO 06N98W. THE
ITCZ REACHES FROM 06N98W TO 08N118W TO 06N130W TO 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 05N83W TO 06N107W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N111W TO 09N128W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AND FRI. FRESH NW WINDS WILL RESULT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS FROM 28N-32N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
BEGINNING LATE FRI...AND THEN EXPAND W OUT TO 240 NM ON SAT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN SAT NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS AND
SEAS OF 10-15 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29-32N
BETWEEN 118W-125W ON SUN AND MON. THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY
RELAX ON TUE AND WED. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL DRIVE NW SWELL
SOUTHWARD. SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 19N-29N
ON MON...THEN SUBSIDE. A SHORT LIVED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
TO NE DRAINAGE FLOW EVENT WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATE FRI NIGHT UNTIL SAT MORNING. 
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF FRESH E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRI
NIGHT. MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE NEXT ROUND OF NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE AT 30N140W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 30N. SEAS W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 22N135W TO
17N137W WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT BY SAT MORNING.

NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH
WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT TONIGHT AND TO 9 FT SAT
MORNING.
    
$$
MCELROY