000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                           
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 05N98W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N98W TO 08N119W TO07N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND FROM 04N
TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 129W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 20N120W TO BEYOND
15N106W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH IS OBSERVED N
OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N115W TO 25N120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT E REACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON
FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND
SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 28N-32N
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINNING LATE FRI...AND
THEN EXPANDING WESTWARD OUT TO 240 NM ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL
FURTHER TIGHTEN ON SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS...AND SEAS 10-
15 FT...ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29-32N BETWEEN 118W-125W ON SUN
AND MON...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING ON TUE INTO WED. THESE
STRONG NW WINDS WILL SEND NW SWELL SOUTHWARD WITH SEAS OF 8-11
FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 19N-29N ON MON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. 
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF FRESH E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU
NIGHT. MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. 
  
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE NEXT ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 30N BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT SW-
W-NW WIND SHIFT. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 32N128W
TO 26N140W EARLY FRI...AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N121W TO 19N140W
ON SAT. 

NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH
WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT ON THU NIGHT AND 9 FT ON FRI
NIGHT. 
     
$$
HUFFMAN