000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC WED APR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 09N104W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W TO 92W AND
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N120W TO
BEYOND 15N104W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LOSE IDENTITY
ON WED. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON WED AND THU AND ALL STALL AND LOSE
IDENTITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN EARLY FRI SUPPORTING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
PATCHES OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TO THE N OF 30N...AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. 
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF FRESH E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8
FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W-110W FROM
LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.
 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 27N128W THEN
HAS STALLED AND IS DISSIPATING SW TO 19N140W. A SECONDARY
SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT...IS NOTED
FROM 32N128W TO 27N134W. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON RECENT ALTIMETER DATA W OF A LINE FROM 32N124W TO
23N127W TO 19N135W PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING LONG PERIOD S AND NW
SWELL. THESE NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE S AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT ON WED. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 30N BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY
A 15-20 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A
LINE FROM 32N125W TO 25N140W LATE FRI. BY THEN...THE NE TRADES
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 125W WILL INCREASE TO FRESH BREEZE
LEVELS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. 
     
$$
HUFFMAN