000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200227
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC WED APR 20 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS FROM 05N90W AND TURNS
NW TO 10N108W...THEN SW  TO 04N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF LINES FROM
06.5N82.5W TO 08N91W AND FROM 05N101W TO 10N110W TO 05N125W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 14N128W BUT CURRENTLY IS
VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
  
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N120W TO BEYOND
15N101W. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 23N IN A FEW HOURS...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY
ON WED. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
THE RIDGE ON WED AND THU AND ALL STALL AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY FRI
SUPPORTING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF
29.5N...AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT. 
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF FRESH ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8
FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-110W FROM
LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.
 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 26N129W THEN HAS STALLED
AND IS DISSIPATING SW TO 19N140W. A SECONDARY SURGE...
ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT...IS NOTED FROM
32N130W TO 26N135W. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 20N134W PRIMARILY DUE TO
MIXING LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL. THESE NW SWELLS WILL
PROPAGATE S AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON WED NIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 30N BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT SW-
W-NW WIND SHIFT. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W
TO 23N140W LATE FRI. BY THEN...THE NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS
W OF 130W WILL INCREASE TO FRESH WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. 
     
$$
NELSON