000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 08N90W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 08N100W TO 05N123W TO
06N126W...THEN RESUMES FROM 07N128W TO 07N130W TO 03N136W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 04N TO 07N
BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND IS ALSO PRESENT FROM 02N TO 06N
BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 24N127W TO 17N107W. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SEVERAL
WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
RIDGE...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTLINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY FRI IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SONORA MEXICO. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 29.5N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT MORNING.
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL PULSE UPWARD AGAIN LATE TUE AND WED
NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO FRESH. FRESH N
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO
7 TO 8 FT JUST N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 120W LATE WED
THROUGH LATE THU.
 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 23N133W...THEN IS
STATIONARY TO 20N140W. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...BUT WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY GENERATED
LARGE NW SWELL. THE SWELL HAS BROUGHT COMBINED SEAS TO 12 TO 15
FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 27N138W TO 27N140W. THE WINDS
WEST OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ENHANCED SEAS OF 8
FT OR GREATER WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N
TODAY...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL...CAUSING SEAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N130W TO 21N140W TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE TROPICS...MIXED NE AND NW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT BRIEFLY FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W
AND 133W.
   
$$
MCELROY