000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 08N97W TO 05N124W TO 07N130W TO
04N136W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO
05N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND
129W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N122W TO BEYOND 15N105W. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON WED AND THU
THEN LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 29.5N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
FRI NIGHT.
  
S OF 15N E OF 110W...

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
LATE TUE AND WED NIGHT. FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8
FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W-120W LATE
WED THROUGH LATE THU.
 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 25N132W THEN IS STATIONARY
TO NEAR 20N140W. FRESH WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 29N-32N W
OF 135W WITH LARGE NW SWELL DRIVING SEAS HEIGHTS UP TO 14 FT.
THE WIND FIELD WEST OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH
AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. ENHANCED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 19N ON TUE...AND THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT AS IT
REACHES FROM 32N132W TO 28N140W LATE TUE...AND FROM 32N129W TO
26N138W LATE WED.

ALTHOUGH NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE TROPICS...EXPECT COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8 FT
NEAR 12N128W BRIEFLY ON TUE.
   
$$
HUFFMAN