000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 08N124W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS GENERALLY N OF 15N
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 129W...AND PRODUCE
AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. BY
WED THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN DECREASING THE TRADES
TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 30N133W TO 22N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE NOTED
W OF THE FRONT WITH 10-13 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE INDICATED JUST E OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...CAUSING THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. BY WED A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 30N127W TO 20N140W WITH
REINFORCING PULSE OF COOLER EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 26N136W.
WINDS WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR
LESS.

$$
MUNDELL