000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE. ITCZ AXIS EXTEND FROM
05N96W TO 09N112W TO 05N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W-140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-133W. 

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 06N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...                                       
WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W-135W. 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN A NW SWELL ARE CONFINED FROM 05N-23N 
BETWEEN 108W-120W. THIS AREA OF NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK
FROM N TO S WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS NEAR 124W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION MON AND MON NIGHT.

SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL ARE WITHIN AN AREA DEFINED FROM 08N-12N
BETWEEN 120W-128W. THIS AREA WILL EXPAND N AND W BY TUE
AFTERNOON AS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 

A RATHER STRONG SPRING TIME COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PARENT GALE
CENTER IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N139W WITH PRES OF 1005 MB. THIS
SYSTEM IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE REGION
NEAR 34N163W HAS INDUCED NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 10-14 FT 
RANGE...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. A COUPLE OF 
SHIP REPORTS JUST W OF THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHTS OF 14 FT. S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SEAS OF 8-9
FT IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 32N132W TO 20N135W
TO 09N140W. THE GALE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 35N137W
WITH PRES OF 999 MB BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N133W TO 25N140W.  THE NW-N WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AT THAT TIME 
WITH SEAS STILL 10-14 FT IN NW SWELL. S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH 
SEAS OF 8-10 FT...AND SIMILAR SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM
32N131W TO 20N133W TO 10140W. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE GALE CENTER
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO HAVE UNDERGONE WEAKENING
WHILE LIFTING N TO NEAR A POSITION NEAR 36N131W WITH THE FRONT
ALSO WEAKENING ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N127W TO 24N133W
...AND STATIONARY TO 21N140W. A POST-FRONTAL IS EXPECTED FROM
THE LOW TO 32N132W TO 28N140W. WINDS AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLE WITH W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW
WATERS. 

NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT
TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE