000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 08N111W TO 03N131W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 107W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                           
BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS GENERALLY N OF 15N
W OF 115W. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL
IS LOCATED FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. THIS AREA OF
SEAS WILL CONTRACT AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES THROUGH MON MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON
AND MON NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
NEAR 120W... AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 119W AND 133W.

A COLD FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS FORECAST TO REACH NW
WATERS NEAR 30N140W THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. 8-9 FT NW
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA
W OF A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 21N140W. LATER TONIGHT...20-30 KT NW
TO N WINDS WILL SKIRT PAST THE NW WATERS THEN MOVE N OF THE AREA
MON. 8-12 FT SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND MON...CAUSING THE
FRONTAL WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 8-11 FT W OF THE FRONT TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
30N129W TO 20N140W.

NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL