000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO 08N111W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 108W-112W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 06N98W...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM LOCATED
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 37N130W PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 15N W OF 115W. STRONG LOW PRES
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE E
...THUS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART OF FORECAST AREA HAS
RELAXED CONSIDERABLY. LARGE NW SWELL W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TO 122W CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO MAX OUT TO 11 FT THERE
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SEAS LOWERING
TO 8 FT FORECAST FROM 06N-25N BETWEEN 111W-120W AT THAT TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
NWP MODELS FORECAST THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE AREA EARLY IN SUN...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A POSITION
FROM 32N138W TO 28N140W BY SUN AFTERNOON. NW SWELL PRODUCING
SEAS TO 8 FT ARE N OF 24N W OF 137W. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A TIGHT
GRADIENT BUILDING SE TO OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE
NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT.
ALSO ON SUN AFTERNOON...SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN NW ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N134W TO 17N140W.
THE NW-N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT BY
EARLY SUN EVENING AS THE FRONT REACHES A POSITION FROM 32N136W
TO 26N140W WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT BY ABOUT 240 NM. WITH ITS UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTING NEWD LATE SUN INTO MON...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N130W TO 24N135W...AND BECOME
STATIONARY TO NEAR 22N140W BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 8-11
FT IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST AT THAT TIME W OF A LINE FROM
32N129W TO 24N135W TO 22N140W. A SMALL AREA OF S-SW 20-25 KT
WINDS IS EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N ON SUN. 

LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE-850 MB MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION
FROM 13N111W TO 06N117W MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 06N-08N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 09.5N115W TO 10N118W.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 130W BY EARLY ON MON WHILE
DAMPENING OUT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT FROM 26N-28N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE
TONIGHT...THEN START UP AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUN MORNING N OF
30N. THESE WINDS THE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE