000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162205 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO 07N110W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 108W-115W...AND INCREASING N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45
NM OF 09N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-118W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 131W-135W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 06N98W...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN  WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM LOCATED
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 39N130W PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 15N W OF 115W. STRONG LOW PRES
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE E
...THUS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART OF FORECAST AREA HAS
RELAXED CONSIDERABLY. LARGE NW SWELL W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
TO 122W CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO MAX OUT TO 11 FT THERE
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO  
8 FT FORECAST FROM 06N-25N BETWEEN 111W-120W AT THAT TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
NWP MODELS FORECAST THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A
POSITION FROM 32N138W TO 28N140W BY SUN AFTERNOON. NW SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE NW PORTION OF THE TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SEAS OF 8-9 FT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A TIGHT GRADIENT BUILDING SE
TO OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE NW-N WINDS OF 20-30
KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. ALSO ON SUN
AFTERNOON... SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN NW ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N134W TO 17N140W. THE NW-N WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY SUN
EVENING AS THE FRONT REACHES A POSITION FROM 32N136W TO 26N140W
WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT BY ABOUT 240 NM. WITH ITS UPPER SUPPORT
LIFTING NEWD LATE SUN INTO MON...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N130W TO 24N135W...AND BECOME STATIONARY
TO NEAR 22N140W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW
SWELL ARE FORECAST AT THAT TIME W OF A LINE FROM 32N129W TO
24N135W TO 22N140W. A SMALL AREA OF S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS IS
EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N ON SUN. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT FROM 26N-29N ARE FORECAST TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BE CONFINED TO N OF 29.5N BY AROUND 06Z SUN.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN 
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE