000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N100W TO 07N114W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 88W-96W
AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 110W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

BROAD RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA
PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 15N W OF 115W. STRONG
LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS MOVING FURTHER AWAY
AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NE PART OF FORECAST AREA HAS
RELAXED CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS W OF NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH TODAY...WITH AN REGION OF 8-12 FT
SEAS IN NW SWELL TO CONTRACT COVERING A MUCH SMALLER AREA FROM
16N-25N BETWEEN 111W-118W BY SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME PULSING TO 20-25 KT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FT.

A COLD FRONT N-NW OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 40N142W TO 27N160W
WILL APPROACH NW WATERS SUN MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 30N137W TO
27N140W SUN EVENING WITH 20-25 NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND AN
AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT W OF A
LINE FROM 30N134W TO 21N140W. THE FRONT WILL RETAIN MUCH OF ITS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO TUE EVENING AND EXTEND FROM
NEAR 30N127W TO 20N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AND MON...WHILE THE AREA OF NW SWELL SPREADS
E-SE AND SLOWLY SUBSIDES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL