000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N108W TO 03N127W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N139W WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 16N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N W OF
136W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING E TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...THUS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 28.5N AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FETCH
WILL REACH 26N WITH SEAS PEAKING TO 15 FT. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRES THEN WILL MOVE NE THROUGH LATE SAT AS IT WEAKENS WHILE LOW
PRES DRIFTS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACTING TO RELAX THE PRES
GRADIENT AND THEREFORE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND SEAS BY SAT
MORNING. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE NW CORNER OF 30N140W AND OVER THE NW PORTION
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

NR