000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N
TO 09W BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 116W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N147W WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REGION
CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 05N AND 20N AND W OF 115W....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 135W. SEAS IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS IT DOES SO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS N OF 26N AND EAST OF 124W ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN 30 HOURS AT AROUND 17 FEET. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE EAST...RESULTING IN A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.
 
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A NEW
BATCH OF NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE NW CORNER OF 30N140W AND OVER THE NW PORTION OF OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION BY LATE SUN. 

$$

LATTO