000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

CONVERGENT WINDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO NOT ANALYZE A MONSOON
TROUGH OVER THE E PAC TODAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 06N94W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
EXTENDS TO 05N110W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N120W TO 04N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N137W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REGION
CONTINUES GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 05N AND 20N W OF 115W...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 137W. COMBINED
NE TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS WITH MAINLY 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO
AND THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE WESTERN MEXICO SUPPORTS FRESH
TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS FROM 18N TO 20N OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. THE LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. 

A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 33N158W WILL SLIDE
EAST AND MERGE WITH THE 1028 MB HIGH WED NIGHT...WITH THIS
REINFORCING RIDGING BECOMING CENTERED NEAR 37N135W BY FRI
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND SWELL
TO 12 FT WITHIN 300 HUNDRED MILES W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THU
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND TO WITHIN 500
MILES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS REACHING
AS HIGH AS 17 FT ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SAT. 
 
$$
LATTO