000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 10N89W TO 07N92W TO 05N100W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 04N104W TO 06N127W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...AND IS ALSO PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N130W TO 03N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   
A 1029 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 35N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REGION
CONTINUES GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 05N AND 20N W OF 120W WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. THIS AREA
OF WINDS AND SEAS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND EVENTUALLY W OF 140W BY SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES REMAINING GENERALLY W OF 115W.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST IS
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FROM 18N TO 20N OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES...AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT.
THIS EVENT WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER MEXICO FILLS.

HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRI AND
BECOME REINFORCED FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA. AS A RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THU WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH THU NIGHT IN NW SWELL. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 16 FT FRI EVENING N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W
AND 122W AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH
SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND. 
 
$$
MCELROY