000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH REACHES FROM 08N85W TO 05N101W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 06N103W TO 08N119W TO 08N124W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N129W TO
BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 122W.


...DISCUSSION... 
                                 
NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS AND
PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
SE THROUGH MID-WEEK. 

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 30N129W...THEN TO S OF
CABO SAN LUCAS AT 17N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGING AND TROUGHING N OF THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT GENERALLY FROM 07N
TO 14N W OF 134W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM 18N TO 20N OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES...AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT. FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX BY WED
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN IT AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W BY WED EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON THU AND FRI. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA W TO 125W BY FRI EVENING...
WHERE SEAS COULD PEAK BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FT.

$$
MCELROY