000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N82W TO 06N88W TO 03N97W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N99W TO 08N122W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N125W TO
01N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 91W
AND 100W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE
NW WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE SE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 32N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 25N125W TO ACROSS
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES SW OF THE AREA N OF THE EQUATOR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 04N TO 14N W OF
130W TONIGHT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND EXTEND EASTWARD TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS FROM 19N TO 20N OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...INCLUDING CABO
CORRIENTES...AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX BY WED AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING W OF THE AREA
AND TROUGHING OVER THE INLAND UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH NW SWELL GENERATED BY THESE
WINDS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W BY WED AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE WEEK..THE
WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS THU
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA W TO 125W BY FRI EVENING.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GAP HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A NARROW STRIP OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE GULF DOWNWIND TO 90W. THESE WINDS ARE
IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING AND ONLY PULSES TO FRESH LEVELS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY