000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO ITCZ PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN EPAC. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS
ARE PRESENT...ONE EXTENDING FROM 11N85W TO 03N97W...ANOTHER FROM
07N117W TO 02N120W...AND ANOTHER FROM 04N111W TO 04N98W TO
06N85W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N
BETWEEN 88W AND 110W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEW BATCH
OF SWELL WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 FT BY TUE MORNING AS IT MERGES
WITH TRADE WIND SWELL TO THE SOUTH. 

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NW OF OUR AREA NEAR 31N142W WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE EQUATORIAL REGION
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES FROM AROUND 05N TO 20N W OF
115W. THESE TRADES SUPPORT MAINLY 7 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE
SWELL WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FROM 06N TO 14N W OF 130W. 

AN ENHANCEMENT OF NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 19N AND 20N AS THE EPAC
RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD...AND TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES OVER
MEXICO. 

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN ON
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS E OF
125W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N OF 25N. COMBINED SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT ON THU NIGHT...AND TO
15 FT ON FRI NIGHT IN THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GAP TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL LESSEN
TODAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE GAP BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$

LATTO