000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO ITCZ PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 03N99W
TO 04N105W TO 03N109W...AND THE SECOND FROM 11N120W TO 02N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR AND W OF THE SECOND TROUGH
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N124W TO 05N134W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TO THE W OF THE BASIN. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 FT BY TUE MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N143W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING N OF THE
EQUATOR SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY FROM 05N TO 14N
AND W OF 129W. 0227Z ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES W OF A LINE FROM 09N137W AND
12N137W. THE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO
MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT ACROSS THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN ON THU AND
FRI. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS E OF 125W TO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N OF 25N. COMBINED SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT ON THU NIGHT...AND TO 14 FT
ON FRI NIGHT IN THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS STILL COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST EVENT WILL PEAK THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

$$

CAM