000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO ITCZ PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN EPAC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
PRESENT...EXTENDING FROM 08N86W TO 04N103W TO 02N121W...AND FROM
06N126W TO 03N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N116W TO 24N125W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG IT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BEGINNING MON MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 FT BY TUE MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N145W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING N OF THE
EQUATOR SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY FROM 07N TO 14N
AND W OF 129W. THE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL
TO MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT ACROSS THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE THU
AND FRI TIME FRAME ON A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE EPAC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US THAT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS E OF 125W TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N OF 25N. COMBINED WIND WAVES AND SWELL
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT BY THU...AND 14 FT BY
FRI OVER THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GAP WILL CONTINUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA PEAKING IN THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT
18 HOURS.

$$

ERA