000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102054
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO ITCZ PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN EPAC. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS
ARE PRESENT...EXTENDING FROM 07N85W TO 03N97W...FROM 04N103W TO
04N113W...AND FROM 07N125W TO 02N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N111W TO 26N113W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG IT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENINGS HOURS TODAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OVER THE NW PORTION
OF THE BASIN BEGINNING MON MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 FT BY TUE
MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N146W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING N OF THE
EQUATOR SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY FROM 07N TO 17N
AND W OF 130W. THE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL
TO MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE THU
AND FRI TIME FRAME ON A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE EPAC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US THAT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS E OF 125W TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N OF 25N. COMBINED WIND WAVES AND SWELL
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT BY THU...AND 14 FT BY
FRI OVER THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GAP WILL CONTINUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA PEAKING IN THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$

ERA