000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN APR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THERE IS NO ITCZ ANALYZED IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE E PAC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT...FROM 09N138W TO 04N139W...FROM 08N125W TO 02N125W...FROM 04N114W TO 04N102W...AND FROM 03N96W TO 07N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 27N115W TO 22N120W. WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS BEHIND THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...NW SWELL TO 8 FT IS STILL OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N E OF 133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OVER THE NW CORNER OF 30N140W BEGINNING MON MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 FT BY TUE MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N146W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING N OF THE EQUATOR SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY N OF 04N S OF 25N...AND W OF 125W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY S OF 09N ALONG 138W IS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT WITH STRONG TRADES FORECAST FROM 09N TO 13N W OF 135W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 15N AND W OF 130W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME ON A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE E PAC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US THAT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS E OF 125W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N OF 25N. COMBINED WIND WAVES AND SWELL ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT BY THU...AND 14 FT FRI OVER THIS AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SLIDES EAST OVER THE W ATLC. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP TO CAUSE NE TO E WINDS TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 9 FT...WITH SWELL TO 8 FT EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE AS FAR W AS 93W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES THE GAP WINDS TO 25 KT TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING THE GAP EVENT WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND WITH THE LOSS OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW MON MORNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS UNDER 8 FT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MON AND THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE CHANNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MODERATE THROUGH MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ABOVE...FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. $$ LATTO