000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
07N87W TO 05N99W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 06N110W TO
05N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 121W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N122W...EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N118W TO 24N121W TO 21N127W THEN WEAKENS FROM THAT POINT TO
18N139W. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS...NW SWELL TO 10 FT IS
PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THIS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE.
IN 48 HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN GENERATING SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN A NW SWELL. 

TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN COMBINED
SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 14N AND W OF 132W
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8
TO 9 FT AT PEAK WIND TIMES.  

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG TONIGHT
THEN WEAKENING BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SEAS WILL REACH BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT AT PEAK WIND TIMES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP WILL CAUSE NE TO E WINDS
TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT
GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 12N AND E OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT DURING PEAK WIND TIMES...WITH AN 8 TO 9
FT SWELL PROPAGATING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE GAP. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

ERA