000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      

A DUAL ITCZ AXIS SETUP WAS ANALYZED OVER THE E PAC THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N110W TO
06N123W...RESUMING AT 06N127W...W OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO
04N140W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N124W TO 03N125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
11N BETWEEN 106W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 09N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W...AND FROM 05N TO 12N W OF
131W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04S87W TO 02S110W TO
04S117W TO 02S130W TO 03S140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 08S TO 02S BETWEEN 89W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
                                  
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N125W...EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO
21N130W TO BEYOND 19N140W. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE DECREASING BELOW
20 KT...NW SWELL TO 10 FT IS PROPAGATING OVER OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SUN. A NEW BATCH OF NW
SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NW CORNER AT
30N140W BEGINNING MON MORNING. 

TRADE WIND SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN COMBINED
SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 15N TO THE W OF
134W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 05N125W EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATES SUN.  

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATE LAST NIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT
WINDS OVER THE GULF. THIS FOLLOWS IN LINE WITH GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THIS MORNING...WITH DRAINAGE FLOW SUPPORTING THE
STRONG WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING
TO BELOW 25 KT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE INCREASING TO
NEAR 25 KT IN ENHANCED GAP DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE GAP EVENT
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...ENDING THESE GAP WINDS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. 
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP WILL CAUSE NE TO E WINDS
TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT
GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 12N AND E OF 89W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING PEAK WIND TIMES...WITH 8 TO 9 FT
SWELL PROPAGATING UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES W OF THE GAP. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL
REACH BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT EACH MORNING.

$$

LATTO