000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI APR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ AXIS HEADS FROM 03N105W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
02N138W THEN TO BEYOND 03N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 08N105W TO
02N120W TO 04N140W TO 10N126W TO 08N105W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                              
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA WITH ITS AXIS
REACHING SE TO NEAR 22N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
30N123W TO 25N122W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS. AN
AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT REMAINS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN
133W AND 138W. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL EXPAND AS IT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 25N THIS MORNING
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 8 FT.

A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N AND E OF 89W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL LESSEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT...THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BEHAVIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BE CAPPED
BELOW 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.