000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI APR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N105W TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 02N138W TO 03N140W. SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04S85W
TO 04S113W TO 04S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N
TO 07N AND W OF 123W AND FROM 02S TO 09S BETWEEN 102W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                              
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AREA WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
30N123W TO 27N120W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS.
FARTHER SOUTH...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
IS CENTERED NEAR 04N138W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO 08N136W. AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT REMAINS FROM
07N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A LOCALLY STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 25N
TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SWELL
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N AND E OF 89W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PULSE BACK UP INTO FRESH TO STRONG
INTENSITY BY EARLY SAT...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-9 FT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT BY EARLY FRIDAY...THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG
INTENSITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BEHAVIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FT WITH HIGHER WINDS.

$$

ERA