000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 02N110W TO 02N108W TO
05N132W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N132W TO 02N133W. ITCZ RESUMES
FROM 04N135W TO 04N140W. SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03S93W
TO 05S110W TO 04S137W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                              
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N134W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 21N115W. WITHIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N118W TO 26N113W WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE OF ITS AXIS.
FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N132W TO 04N133W. AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 9
FT REMAINS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. THIS AREA OF
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH SAT. 

A LOCALLY STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 25N
TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO 27N140W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SWELL
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N AND E OF 89W
WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
THEN PULSE BACK UP INTO FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY BY EARLY
FRI...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRI AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KT.
THIS BEHAVIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8-9 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG
INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISH DURING FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE PULSING AGAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WAVE
HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY THEN LOWER TO LESS
THAN 8 FT ON FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

ERA