000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1650 UTC THU APR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AND REMAIN
IN THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
PULSING IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
SUN. BY SUN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DYNAMICS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N85W TO 04N94W TO 02N108W
TO 05N126W TO 05N133W TO 04N140W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 02S94W TO 03S115W TO 03S120W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 125W AND
133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N W OF
137W...AND S OF 02S W OF 105W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N132W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 19N111W. WITHIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
ZONE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N121W TO 16N131W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 01N134W. EVEN THOUGH THE
WIND FIELD REMAINS BELOW INCLUSION TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT REMAINS FROM 06N TO14N BETWEEN
120W AND 132W. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH SAT. 

A LOCALLY STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 26N
TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

A COLD FRONT FROM 31N137W TO 27N140W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY W OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SWELL WILL
PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND FROM
THE GULF TO NEAR 89W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN
PULSE BACK UP INTO FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20
KT. ANOTHER PULSE OF THESE WINDS IS FORECAST FOR LATE FRI
NIGHT...AND COULD BE IN THE STRONG RANGE WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8-9
FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO
STRONG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN
DIMINISH DURING FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO
8 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH THESE WINDS...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THEY THEN LOWER TO LESS THEN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
HUFFMAN