000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071051 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1050 UTC THU APR 07 2016 UPDATED THIRD PARAGRAPH UNDER DISCUSSION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...N-NE WINDS IN THE STRONG RANGE ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GULF...AND WILL SOON INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE RANGE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 8-10 FT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WINDS ATTAIN DURATION. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO THE STRONG RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE INTENSITY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. STRONG N-NE WINDS PULSE AGAIN THROUGH THE GULF FRI NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO THE STRONG RANGE LATE FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT. RESIDUAL FRESH NE SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE WIND ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 97W-106W...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 02N109W TO 04N120W TO 04N130W...THEN RESUMES FROM 03N134W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W-133W ...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 01N TO 05N E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 06N139W. ...DISCUSSION...UPDATED A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N118W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 32N121W AND ALSO SE TO NEAR 18N109W TOWARDS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N121W TO 16N128W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 13N130W TO 01N132W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND THE TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N119W TO 10N124W NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU. RESIDUAL SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL BE CONFINED TO WITHIN AN AREA FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 118W-133W BY EARLY THIS EVENING ...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. BY LATE TONIGHT...SEAS OF 8-9 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED FROM 08N-15N W OF 131W AND FROM 08N-16N W OF 132W BY FRI AS THE MODERATE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION INCREASE TO FRESH INTENSITY. EXTENSIVE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN ARE SPREADING N-NE TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N123W PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.THE LOW LIFTING TO THE NE. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 28N E OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N-25.5N BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY EARLY ON FRI. A COLD FRONT FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATER THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W LATE TONIGHT...AND FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W BY FRI MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8-11 FT. BY LATE FRI NIGHT...STRONG NW TO NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 127W-131W BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N123W TO 25N126W AND WEAKENING TO 21N140W. AT THAT TIME...NW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 8-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 90W TO AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND DIMINISH AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KT. ANOTHER PULSE OF THESE WINDS IS FORECAST FOR LATE FRI NIGHT...AND COULD BE IN THE STRONG RANGE WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8-9 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISH DURING FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH THESE WINDS...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY THEN LOWER TO LESS THEN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE