000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070221 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU APR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HOWEVER RESIDUAL FRESH NE SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED BY EARLIER WINDS STILL COVERS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 03N110W TO 06N130W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N134W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 06N W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N118W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 32N121W AND ALSO SE TO NEAR 18N109W TOWARDS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 21N123W TO 13N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 19N118W TO 13N130W...ALONG WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU. RESIDUAL SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU EVENING. FRESH NE SWELL WILL REAPPEAR IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 140W BY EARLY FRI AS TRADES N OF THE ITCZ INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS. EXTENSIVE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN ARE SPREADING N-NE TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 29N124W...WHICH IS LIFTING IN A NE DIRECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND N OF 21N E OF A LINE FROM 21N114W TO 30N122W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 31N BY EARLY THU AS TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU EVENING...DIMINISHING BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING 30N141W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THU. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W...THEN FROM 30N126W TO 24N130W TO 21N140W. SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE EXPECTED. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WILL PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DURING THE PULSING WINDS. $$ LEWITSKY