000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062113
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME
FRESH NE SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED BY EARLIER WINDS STILL COVERING
THE WATERS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK BELOW GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON WITH
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 02N110W TO 05N127W THEN
RESUMES FROM 04N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...FROM 04N TO 08.5N
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W...AND ALSO FROM 02.5N TO 03.5N BETWEEN
127W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27N120W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 32N125W AND ALSO SE TO NEAR 17N111W TOWARDS
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SW
EXTENDING FROM 11N130W TO 04N129W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE
NE WINDS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N130W TO 20N117W TO 06N116W
TO 06N130W TO 14N130W...ALONG WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY
EARLY THU. RESIDUAL SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE
THU...THEN WILL BE SOMEWHAT REINFORCED BY INCREASING TRADES TO
FRESH LEVELS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 140W ON FRI.

EXTENSIVE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN ARE
SPREADING N-NE TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 27N125W...WHICH IS
LIFTING IN A NE DIRECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND E OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 28N127W TO 26N121W TO 17N120W
TO 19N105W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 31N BY
EARLY THU AS TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY THU EVENING...DIMINISHING BY EARLY FRI.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING 30N145W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THU. A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN FROM
30N128W TO 25N132W TO 22N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 8-12 FT
ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR
92W. THE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH...BUT WILL PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...THEN AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL PULSE BACK TO FRESH
TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DURING THE PULSING
WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY