000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061610 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED APR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT YET ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AGAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE ONCE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS... NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 11 OR 12 FT FT WITH THIS NEXT EVENT...THEN SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TO 8-9 FT FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING SSW TO NEAR 12N BETWEEN 95W-97W WITH A NE SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER DURING FRI AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 05N100W TO 05N115W TO 04N125W THEN RESUMES AT 03N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 96W..AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N125W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER THE NW WATERS. A 1018 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 26N123W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TOWARDS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N-20N W OF 130W AS NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N126W TO 08N127W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE DISSIPATING. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES TO THE N IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU MORNING WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER... PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W. EXTENSIVE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN ARE SPREADING N-NE TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 26N125W...AND IS LIFTING IN A NE DIRECTION. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS MAY EXIST JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF 20 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 25N TO 28N. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING 30N145W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS...AND A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W BY THU MORNING...AND FROM 30N130W TO 23.5N140W BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON... THEN PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THU NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 30 KT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE W AND SW...AND MERGE WITH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRI. $$ GR