000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061005 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED APR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND OVER THE ITHSMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ATTRIBUTED TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER JUST S OF TAMPICO AND LOW PRES OF 1004 MB OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N99W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED SUCH POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTING FACTOR OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW CEASES. SEAS CURRENTLY MAXING OUT AT 12 FT WITH THIS EVENT WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 11 FT LATER THIS MORNING. THE N-NE WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SEAS DROP OFF FURTHER TO 8 FT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE WINDS WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5- 10 KT WITH SEAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 8 FT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT YET ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARDS 12Z ON THU AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THAT BASIN. N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AGAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE ONCE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND MATERIALIZE BACK TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LIGHT WINDS FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 12 OR 13 FT FT WITH THIS NEXT EVENT...THEN SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TO 8- 9 FT FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING SSW TO NEAR 12N BETWEEN 95W-97W WITH A NE SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER DURING FRI AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N101W TO 06N110W TO 05N115W TO 04N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 03N127W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-115W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-93W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD TO 32N130W TO 25N124W AND TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIDO ISLANDS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE FAR NW WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N-20N W OF 130W AS NOTED IN THE 0552 UTC ASCAT PASS. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N123W TO 04N124W. CONVECTION EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW LAGS BEHIND AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE DISSIPATING. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH...AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N HAS NOW RESULTED IN NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN AN AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 119W-125W. THE 0552 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THIS AREA OF WINDS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF THESE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER THE WATERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N116W TO 14N122W BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY LATE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. EXTENSIVE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NNE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF 124W. AREAS OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS AND ACTIVE UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST TO THE W OF THEM...AND IS LIFTING IN A NE DIRECTION. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS MAY EXIST JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY ON THU. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THU NIGHT AT WHICH TIME CANNOT RULE POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG IS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE FORECAST TO BE PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE W AND SW...AND MERGE WITH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRI. $$ AGUIRRE