000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE APR 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ITHSMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER WED MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 12-13 FT WITH THIS WIND EVENT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING S AND SW OF THE GAP REGION COVERING THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT YET ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AGAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N105W TO 04N120W...THEN RESUMES AT 03N125W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 110W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-118W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH 30N130W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N-20N W OF 130W BASED ON AN 1752 AND 1842 UTC ASCAT PASSES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N121W TO 04N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N HAS RESULTED IN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING8TO9FT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH PER LATEST NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE EDGE OF A 1756 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 125.5W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W BY WED NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS MAY EXIST JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W. THE EDGE OF A 1522 ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS...PROPAGATING W AND SW...AND MERGING WITH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT TONIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. $$ COBB