000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE APR 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 12-13 FT TODAY WITH THIS WIND EVENT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING S AND SW OF THE GAP REGION COVERING THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W BY TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT YET ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AGAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N83W TO 04N95W TO 03N105W TO 04N106W TO 04N111W...THEN RESUMES AT 04N122W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W...FROM 02N TO 03.5N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N- 20N W OF 115W BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES MAINLY W OF 128W. A SURFACE TROUGH...WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN APPEARANCE...EXTENDS FROM 11N117W TO 04N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 125.5W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W BY WED NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS MAY EXIST JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU. AN AREA N SWELL PRODUCING MAX SEAS OF 8 FT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W-130W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WHILE SHRINKING WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE WED MORNING. OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W. AN ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS WIND SPEEDS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...THEN PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS...PROPAGATING W AND SW...AND MERGING WITH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT BY THIS EVENING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. $$ GR