000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE APR 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NE OF TAMPICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS RECENTLY USHERED IN N-NE 30-25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH UNDER GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDS CONTINUE AT GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE WED MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. MAX SEAS OF 12 OF 13 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE GALE TODAY...WITH 8-9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING UP TO 500 NM SW OF THE GAP THROUGH ON TUE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT YET ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THU AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THAT BASIN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 04N94W TO 04N100W TO 04N106W TO 05N115W WHERE IT IS BISECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 03N120W. IT RESUMES AT 04N121W TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 02N140W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-115W ...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 39N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE TO 32N130W TO 25N124W AND TO NEAR 15N103W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH...ANOTHER WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN APPEARANCE...IS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 03N120W. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW AT 25N129W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW IS HELPING TO SET OFF AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT 07N-25N AND BETWEEN 109W-126W. THE DIVERGENCE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 115W FROM 06N-10N...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM W OF TROUGH FROM 06N-09N. OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE STREAMING NEWD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 09N-19N BETWEEN 111W-120W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS REACHES NEAR 132W BY LATE WED NIGHT...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES FROM FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 118W-125W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 118W- 126W BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT...AND FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 117W-120W BY EARLY WED EVENING WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE WED NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKEN. A SMALL AREA OF N-NE FRESH TO STRONG MAY EXIST JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT INTO THU. AN AREA N SWELL PRODUCING MAX SEAS OF 8 FT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W-129W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED MORNING WHILE SHRINKING WITH SEAS FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 8 FT EARLY WED AFTERNOON. OTHER GAP WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW COLOMBIA HAS JUST RECENTLY INITIATED NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND W TO 89W FROM 10N-12N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS...PROPAGATING W AND SW FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES THROUGH MID-WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE