000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER
IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING S OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO IS BRINGING WINDS TO 30 KT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THE WINDS OVER THE GAP AND
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE TONIGHT...DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS TO 13 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE GALE...WITH 8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING UP TO 500
NM SW OF THE GAP ON TUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TUE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE TUE
NIGHT...BEFORE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS ON WED AND THE
GAP WIND EVENT CEASES. MID RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER GAP
WIND EVENT POSSIBLE BEGINNING THU AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 03N105W TO
05N117W...RESUMING W OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 05N121W TO BEYOND
02N140W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 138W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 102W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 39N132W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N103W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES
OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N118W TO 04N119W...GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES TO FRESH TO STRONG
STRONG CATEGORY FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY TUE
EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
  
AN AREA OF 8 FT N SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W
WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 

OTHER GAP WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NW COLOMBIA...COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WILL
INITIATE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUE...THEN
PULSE BACK TO 20 TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. SEAS
OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS...PROPAGATING
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
LATTO/AGUIRRE