000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER
IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N97W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING S OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO IS BRINGING WINDS TO 30 KT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AS CONFIRMED BY A 1624
UTC ASCAT PASS. THE WINDS OVER THE GAP AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATER THIS
EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS TO 13 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE GALE TONIGHT...WITH 8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING UP TO 500
NM SW OF THE GAP ON TUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BEFORE THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS AND THE GAP WIND EVENT CEASES. MID
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT POSSIBLE
BEGINNING THU AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 02N103W TO
05N116W...RESUMING W OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 05N119W TO 03N130W
TO 02N140W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS WEST
OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT
39N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N116W TO 04N117W...GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND
121W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES
THAT BUILDS SE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID-WEEK WILL INCREASE
THE NE TRADES TO FRESH TO STRONG STRONG CATEGORY FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 117W AND 124W BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 9 OR 10 FT.
  
AN AREA OF 8 FT N SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W
WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 

OTHER GAP WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NW COLOMBIA...COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WILL
INITIATE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUE...THEN PULSE
BACK TO 20 TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE WINDS...PROPAGATING WESTWARD
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
LATTO