000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON APR 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST ENE OF TAMPICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PACKING OF ISOBARS OVER SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 40 KT TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT CLEARLY REVEALED THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE THE GALE FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION...SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "V7SD8" REPORTED NE WINDS OF 37 KT AT A POSITION OF 14N95W 06 UTC THIS MORNING WITH MAX WAVES OF 10 FT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 13 FT. INTERESTINGLY...THE LEADING ARC CLOUD OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS IS FAINTLY VISIBLE WELL TO THE SW OF THE GULF FROM 07N97W TO 07N103W TO 11N103W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO GALE FORCE IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO LATE TUE NIGHT PER WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/NAM MODELS. SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WIND AREA ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY FROM THE CURRENT RANGE OF 10-15 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WELL SW FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 07N104W BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO NEAR 07N103W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 03N100W TO 03N104W TO 04N112W WHERE IT IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N111W TO 03N116W. IT RESUMES AT 04N120W TO 03N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-98.5W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 37N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 32N135W TO 23N126W AND TO 18N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 132W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICS. THIS TROUGH IS SIMILAR TO A RECENT ONE THAT WAS OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...AND IT ALSO HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN INVERTED TROPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE AS DID THE PREVIOUS ONE NOW W OF 140W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO ITS NW IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM TO ITS E FROM 08N-10W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WED. A SHARPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IF FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH WED...AND HELP TO INITIATE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS NEW TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID- WEEK WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES TO THE STRONG CATEGORY FROM 11N- 15N BETWEEN 119W-126W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT. DECAYING NW SWELL IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WILL ALLOW SEAS THERE TO FALL TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS FROM MIXED NE AND NW SWELL EXPECTED FROM 06N- 10N BETWEEN 130W-136W BY THAT TIME. AN AREA OF 8 FT N SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W-127W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. OTHER GAP WINDS...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW COLOMBIA WILL INITIATE NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK UP TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE ACTUAL AREA OF COVERAGE EXPANDING N TO 12N BY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. $$ AGUIRRE