000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... 
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED JUST W OF TAMPICO EXTENDS A RIDGE
SSE TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PACKING OF
ISOBARS OVER SE MEXICO IS FACILITATING STRONG N-NE WINDS TO
FUNNEL S THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND EXIT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS A GALE. THE LEADING ARC CLOUD OF THESE WINDS IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PROPAGATING SW WELL S OF THE GULF TO
NEAR 09N. WIND SPEEDS ARE 30-40 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-15 FT WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95W TO
13.5N95.5W. N-NE 25-30 KT ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95W TO 12.5N96.5W WITH SEAS OF 8-
10 FT. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N118W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 34N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
NEAR 23N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH
NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 120W. A SURFACE
TROUGH LIES FROM 11N112W TO 03N115W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  

NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA AND MERGING WITH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 06N W OF 120W. THE NW SWELL
WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY EARLY MON COVERAGE OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL
SHRINK TO AN AREA FROM 05N TO 10N W OF ABOUT 120W.

A AREA OF 8 FT SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN 42 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W WITH WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. 

OTHER GAP WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
ALLOW FOR NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REMAIN 20-25 KT
FOR THE NEXT 28 HOURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
FORMOSA