000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
WILL HELP FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE FURTHER...REACHING GALE FORCE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 40 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 16 FT BY SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND VEERING WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MON. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...BACK TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GALE OR NEAR GALE
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH THE ADDED
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
WINDS MAY PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE MON AND TUE NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N94W TO 04N100W TO 06N108W TO 04N113W TO
05N125W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO
11N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 121W AND
126W...AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM
05N TO 10N W OF 130W. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED TO THESE
WINDS IS HELPING FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITHIN THE ITCZ AS NOTED
ABOVE. NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THOUGH THE AREA AND MERGING
WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 06N W OF 120W. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAINING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY EARLY MON COVERAGE OF SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK TO COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N W OF
135W.

GAP WINDS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR
25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON. WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL THEN PULSE TO NEAR 25 KT EACH NIGHT AND
DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 

$$
FORMOSA