000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
WILL HELP FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FURTHER...REACHING GALE FORCE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 40 KT LATE TONIGHT
WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 16 FT BY SUN MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DECREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND VEERING WINDS OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS NEAR GALE
FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH THE
ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WINDS MAY PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE MON AND TUE NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N97W TO 06N107W TO 04N113W TO 04N131W
TO02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
S AND 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
128W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N127WEXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 130W. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED TO THESE WINDS IS HELPING FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
WITHIN THE ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE. NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THOUGH
THE AREA AND MERGING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 06N
W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY EARLY MON COVERAGE OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK TO COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO
10N W OF 135W.

GAP WINDS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR
25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON. WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL THEN PULSE TO NEAR 25 KT EACH NIGHT AND
DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK. 

$$
AL