000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE INCORPORATED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL
MODELS...AND ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT
WITHIN THE CORE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE GALE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N101W TO 04.5N111W TO 03.5N117W TO
05.5N122W. IT RESUMES NEAR 05.5N127W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN
120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 12N100W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS AN AREA
GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 110W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...
EXTEND FROM 30N131W TO 24N139W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. NW
SWELL OF MAINLY 8 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING S TO SE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S TO
SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT AND MERGE WITH
NE WIND WAVES. BY SAT EVENING THE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 10 FT WILL COVER AN AREA WITHIN 500 NM OF A LINE FROM
17N119W TO 10N140W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A BREAK IN THE ITCZ WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 09N123W TO 02N127W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
WINDS NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W WITH INTERMITTENT CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO NEAR 135W...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$
MCELROY