000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE INCORPORATED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL
MODELS...AND ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT
WITHIN THE CORE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE GALE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 03N101W TO 05N125W...THEN
RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 03N128W TO BEYOND 00N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
92W AND 106W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 135 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 30N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 12N100W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS AN AREA
GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 110W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...
EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. NW
SWELL OF MAINLY 8 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING S TO SE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S TO
SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT MERGING WITH NE
WIND WAVES. BY SAT MORNING THE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 11 FT WILL COVER AN AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO
11N116W TO 03N140W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A BREAK IN THE ITCZ WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 08N126W TO 02N127W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON BRINGING WINDS TO 25 KT W OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEAR 20 KT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W WITH
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO NEAR 135W...
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$
MCELROY