000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SAT EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE INCORPORATED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL
MODELS...AND ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN PULSING...BELOW GALE FORCE...LATE
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT
WITHIN CORE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE GALE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N91W TO 04N110W TO 05N124W...THEN
RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N127W TO BEYOND 00N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N126W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 13N100W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS AN AREA
GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 115W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
E TO SE...ANCHORING NEAR 29N126W TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A FRONTAL
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM 31N132W TO 24N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NW SWELL OF MAINLY 9 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING S TO
SE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE S TO SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT
MERGING WITH NE WIND WAVES. BY SAT MORNING THE AREA OF COMBINED
SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT WILL COVER AN AREA W OF A LINE FROM
30N125W TO 10N118W TO 04N140W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A BREAK IN THE ITCZ WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 08N125W TO 00N125W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON BRINING WINDS TO 25 KT W OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEAR 20 KT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE W WITH
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO NEAR
135W...BEFORE DISSIPATING. 

FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...DIMINISHING DURING
THE DAY SAT.

$$
LATTO